I know, I know. How many times do we see this in blog posts? I usually delete them as if they carried COVID, but between Jane Friedman’s post in The Hot Sheet (subscription only ) and Penny Sansevieri’s in A Marketing Expert, I figured it time to say something about the direction the publishing industry is leaning.

I do not predict anything in stone. In some ways this industry seems like a dinosaur, hung up in ancient ways, then in other it shoots out with innovation (i.e., Spotify is jumping with both feet into audiobooks). If anything, the recent DOJ – Penguin Random House antitrust trial has opened our eyes to the self-absorbed mentality of the Big 5 publishers versus that of the smaller press, and that doesn’t even mention self-publishing.

First, the words that resonated around the world from those hearings involved advances and sales. The loudest words remembered of late are “90 percent of titles sell fewer than 2,000 units.” That’s traditional books, people. Not self-published. The other quote was “about 98 percent of the books that publishers released in 2020 sold fewer than 5,000 copies.”

Before we faint from gasping at that reality, face the music. With traditional, hybrid, and self-publishing out there, anyone with a thought in their head can publish a book. Those numbers seem incredibly small, but an insane number of people are publishing something. It is no longer whether you can publish but how well can you market and make yourself be heard enough to sell that 5,000 copies? Frankly, if you include all the self-publishing, those numbers drop to an insanely lower number. Like, under a 100 copies.

Even Barnes & Noble is shrinking back when it comes to taking chances with books. They are sticking with tried-and-true authors with large backlists. Hey, why not stick with what works, they say. Why take risks on those who haven’t proven themselves?

My first book came out in 2012. I had nibbles from New York, one editor running me down at a conference excited at my work but was unable to get it past her other editors. Made me feel good. However, I watched the ups and downs, ins and outs of the industry and decided I wanted a smaller press. It felt more stable. It wasn’t self-publishing and it held none of the politics and callous decision-making of the Big 5.

I never looked back. I love my choice.

Penny Sansiveri predicts: “I foresee that boutique houses and small presses (different from hybrid publishers which are still, by and large, self-publishing) are going to rule this industry.”

I’ve been believing that for years. And that’s why you see so many of them posted in FundsforWriters. Next week: the pros and cons of working with a small press.